Wednesday, March 26, 2003

Some signs of hope to end this war quickly?


Well, yesterday I expressed my pessimism about the overall outcome of this war. Militarily, it will be a victory for the coalition, however costly it may be. My concern was about the effect this war might have on the Middle East region.

Today, some news indicate that the Iraqi population may not unite in defense. We can not know for sure, but at least british information suggests that there is some kind of an uprising in Basra against the iraqi forces.
Noone can confirm that, yet, because the coalition is not in Basra. Maybe there is an uprising, maybe not. Maybe there was a revolt but iraqi troops ended it. We don't know.

Troops are advancing fast towards Bagdad, that is encouraging. Only the sandstorm seems to slow down the advance. Two things concern me, though.

1. pictures of thousands of Iraqis living in Jordan who come back home in order to fight.

2. the valiance and courage that Iraqi troops show near Bagdad.

Referring to my first point: These people in Jordan can watch Jordan TV. They are not limited to Iraqi propaganda. They decide to go back home to defend Iraq. This may be an indication of the effect that this war has on the arabic world, in general. Although most arab governments side with the coalition, their population seems to side with Saddam.

Referring to my second point: I watched CNN about an hour ago. An embedded journalist reported out of the sandstorm close to Bagdad. He said that this storm makes it impossible to advance. On the positive side it makes you basically invisible, as well. He reported that one can see only about the next 40 meters.
Still the convoy was under attack from Iraqi vehicles. The Iraqis were shooting with their machine guns at the tanks. The bullets cannot penetrate the tanks. Still Iraqis kept attacking. Their attack was cut down by the convoy. Basically Iraqi troops didn't have a chance. They were coming in pick up trucks!! The reporter was amazed by the outstanding courage of the attackers. He mentioned that twice in his 90 second statement.

So if the morale of iraqi troops is really that good, then guerilla warfare may trouble this country for a long time even after Bagdad is secured. Also, the main battles are still ahead, I think. Bagdad will probably be heavily guarded.

Unfortunately, I cannot quote the source, but yesterday a german news station reported that according to US military experts the fight for bagdad may cost the US 3000 lives.
For a war, this is a small number. But it is significant, nonetheless. I am not sure if the American public has been prepared for that.

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