Wednesday, April 07, 2004

Iraq - will it be a second Vietnam?

In the current situation, it doesn't matter anymore whether one supported the war that led to Saddams fall or not. If Iraq cannot be transformed into a peaceful democracy, the world will have to face years or decades of chaos, more terrorist threats and maybe economic (oil) crisis.

This worst case scenario probably needs some explanation, but I may get into that some other time (hopefully).

I think, that the Coalition troops are in the process of losing control over the situation in Iraq. The Shiites are on the rise, they have leaders like Al-Sadr who propose a radical Islam free from foreign intervention (Especially if it comes from a christian-jewish background).

Some are suggesting that troops should be pulled out before Iraq turns into Bush's Vietnam... well, I don't think retreating will help.

The power vaquum in Iraq is bad enough as it is, pulling out will probably make it worse. Think of the underlying message. It would say: "We failed".

So, the situation is, America and its allies (plus all the traditional allies who just disagreed about the usefulness of the war)are doomed to pacify Iraq. We are all doomed to success. I hate it, but I have to admit that I am rather clueless, HOW this task ahead shall be tackled.

It seems to me that we might very well see an approach similar to the one that Israel has with the palaestinians. You know, attacking "the infrastructure of terror." I think this is a bad idea. It isn't working in Israel, why should it work in Iraq?
On the other hand, as I mentioned, I don't know it any better.

What really struck me in shock and awe (so to speak) is media reports over here (Germany) that Sunites and Shiites are uniting against the "invaders". Who would have ever thought that this might happen after all those years of Sunite oppression?

So basically, my post today is not a political opinion about what is to be done... it is more of a helpless question: Really, what should be done???

No comments: